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28
Jan16

OK Google: desigualdade

CRG

 

“to put an end to great aggregations of capital because of the helplessness of the individual before them.”

Juiz Learned Hand sobre o objectivo do Antitrust Act de 1890

 

A última edição da "Foreign Affairs" é dedicada ao tema da desigualdade: as suas causas, importância e o que pode ser feito. Com efeito, a desigualdade vai estar no centro da luta política que irá definir esta geração.

 

E pese embora alguns tentarem fugir ao assunto com o fundamento de que a desigualdade tem vindo a diminuir a nível mundial - efeitos do aumento do nível de vida na China e na Índia - é unanimemente aceite que esta tem vindo a aumentar dentro dos países: "the gap between average Americans and average Chinese is being partly replaced by larger gaps between rich and poor Americans and between rich and poor Chinese". Se dúvidas houvesse é bom relembrar que em 1965 a remuneração dos CEO das 350 maiores empresas americanas era 20 vezes mais alta do que a remuneração do trabalhador médio; em 1989 era 58 vezes mais alta; e em 2012 era 273 vezes mais alta (por ex: se o trabalhador médio recebe mil euros o CEO aufere 273 mil euros).

 

No entanto, se por um lado a sua existência é consensual, por outro lado, a resposta ao problema tem sido de uma certa passividade para a sua mitigação (desigualdade existirá sempre, e deve existir até um certo grau, a questão é saber qual o grau de desigualdade sustentável num sistema democrático). Um certo encolher de ambros alimentado pelo pensamento "não ha alternativa".

 

Não é preciso ser cínico para perceber de onde surge este sentimento de impotência, basta ver como são taxadas as grandes multinacionais em relação aos restantes contribuintes. Um exemplo disto é o recente acordo que o Governo Inglês fez com a Google, referente aos últimos 20 anos, segundo o qual esta irá pagar uma taxa de imposto a rondar os 3% em vez dos normais 20%. Privilégio claro de uma multinacional face às empresas mais pequenas, o que coloca em risco a própria base do sistema capitalista - a livre concorrência e a igualdade perante a lei - e, reforça a ideia nefasta de competição fiscal entre Estados. Ao mesmo tempo que se assiste a este tratamento preferencial das grandes empresas impera a obsessão dos Governos com défices orçamentais, que, por sua vez, fundamenta cortes no Estado Social, aumento de impostos sobre o consumo e de rendimento de trabalho porque, dizem, não há dinheiro. Resultado: agravamento da desigualdade. 

 

Tais diferenças de tratamento são politicamente indefensáveis, pelo que os governos se escudam na globalização, alegando que esta os impede de agir de outra forma; mas como escreveu Ben Okri:

 

They say there is only one way for politics.
That it looks with hard eyes at the hard world
And shapes it with a ruler’s edge,
Measuring what is possible against
Acclaim, support, and votes.


They say there is only one way to dream
For the people, to give them not what they need
But food for their fears.

(...)

Can we still seek the lost angels
Of our better natures?
Can we still wish and will
For poverty’s death and a newer way
To undo war, and find peace in the labyrinth
Of the Middle East, and prosperity
In Africa as the true way
To end the feared tide of immigration?

 

We dream of a new politics
That will renew the world
Under their weary suspicious gaze.
There’s always a new way,
A better way that’s not been tried before.

 

 

28
Jan16

O problema é o Centeno receber uma página com perguntas

David Crisóstomo

 

The macroeconomic scenario in the Draft Budgetary Plan for 2015 is more optimistic than the projections under the Commission 2014 autumn forecast.

The Commission 2014 autumn forecast foresees a general government deficit of 3.3% of GDP in 2015, markedly higher than in the Draft Budgetary Plan. The discrepancy is to a large extent due to different assumptions about revenue growth (mainly of indirect taxes and social contributions).

Some of the measures included in the Draft Budgetary Plan may underperform or are deemed to have significant implementation risks, since they have repeatedly failed to become operational or materialise in time in the past.

The headline deficit planned in the Draft Budgetary Plan for 2014 is at 4.8% of GDP, above the 4% of GDP deficit target recommended by the Council in June 2013. For 2015, the Draft Budgetary Plan foresees to correct the excessive deficit by 2015 as recommended by the Council. At the same time, the Draft Budgetary Plan targets a headline deficit of 2.7% of GDP, which is also above the 2.5% of GDP deficit recommended by the Council. In light of the 4.9% of GDP general government deficit projected for 2014 in the Commission 2014 autumn forecast, Portugal is seen to miss the 4.0% of GDP target recommended by the Council.

Overall, it appears that the fiscal effort in 2013-2014 has not been delivered.

The headline deficit planned in the Draft Budgetary Plan for 2014 and 2015 is, at 4.8% of GDP and 2.7% of GDP, above the 4% of GDP and 2.5% of GDP respective deficit targets recommended by the Council in June 2013. Based on the Commission forecast, the headline deficit is expected to reach 4.9% of GDP in 2014 and 3.3% of GDP in 2015, indicating substantial risks to a timely correction of the excessive deficit by 2015, as recommended by the Council.

The required careful analysis also indicates that the recommended fiscal effort (annual and cumulated over 2013-2015) is not projected to be met. Overall, the timely correction of the excessive deficit by 2015 is at risk, mostly due to the inadequate fiscal effort in 2014 and projected for 2015.

In addition, the information provided suggests that only modest progress has been made in most structural reform areas. 

 

European Commission Staff Working Document 

Analysis of the draft budgetary plan of Portugal

Brussels, 28.11.2014

 

 

The Plan's macroeconomic scenario for 2015 is more optimistic than the Commission 2014 autumn forecast.

Regarding 2015, the Commission projects a general government deficit of 3.3% of GDP, significantly higher than the target in the Draft Budgetary Plan. The discrepancy is to a large extent due to a more cautious assessment of the impact on the budget of macro-economic developments, the fight against fraud and of the yields from certain measures of the consolidation package.

In light of the 4.9% of GDP deficit projected for 2014 in the Commission autumn forecast, Portugal is seen to miss the headline target recommended by the Council.

Based on an overall assessment of the Draft Budgetary Plan, compliance by Portugal with the Excessive Deficit Procedure recommendation is at risk.

Overall, the Commission is of the opinion that the Draft Budgetary Plan of Portugal, which is currently under the corrective arm, is at risk of non-compliance with the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact. In particular, there is a risk that the Draft Budgetary Plan for 2015 will not fulfil the Council recommendation of correcting the excessive deficit by 2015. This risk mainly arises from favourable assumptions of the impact on the budget of macroeconomic developments and from the lack of structural measures underpinning the Plan. The fiscal effort falls clearly short of the recommendation, even taking into account the impact of methodological and statistical revisions, and thus indicates the need for additional structural consolidation measures for 2015 to underpin a credible and sustainable correction of the excessive deficit. The Commission therefore invites the authorities to take the necessary measures within the national budgetary process to ensure that the 2015 budget will be compliant with the Stability and Growth Pact. The Commission is also of the opinion that Portugal has made limited progress with regard to the structural part of the recommendations issued by the Council in the context of the 2014 European Semester and thus invites the authorities to accelerate implementation. 

 

European Commission Opinion

on the Draft Budgetary Plan of Portugal

Brussels, 28.11.2014

 

 

In 2014, Portugal achieved a headline deficit of 4.5% of GDP, which was above the recommended target of 4% of GDP. The fiscal effort indicators also point to a shortfall in the structural effort, based on the change in both the unadjusted and adjusted structural balance in 2014 and in cumulative terms over 2013-2014, as well as on the permanent consolidation measures taken under the programme and thereafter.

The fiscal effort is below what is recommended by the Council based on the change in both the unadjusted and adjusted structural balance in 2015, as well as in cumulative terms over 2013-2015.

According to the Commission spring forecast there appears to be a risk of a significant deviation from the required adjustment towards the medium-term objective in 2016.

 

European Commission, Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs

Assessment of the 2015 Stability Programme for Portugal

Brussels, 27.05.2015

 

 

 

 

«As circunstâncias são o dilema sempre novo, ante o qual temos de nos decidir. Mas quem decide é o nosso carácter.»
- Ortega y Gasset

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